Modelling of Water Level Oscillations in the Don Delta According to Wind Situation Forecasts

We present a mathematical model consisting of a model of the hydrodynamics of the Azov Sea and a model of water movement in the Don channel. This model makes it possible to calculate fluctuations in the water level in the mouth area of the Don, depending on the wind situation over the Azov Sea. This approach makes it possible to predict in advance the change in the level surface in the main branches of the Don River. The movement of water in the Azov Sea (the marine part of the model) is described by shallow water equations. Hydrodynamics in the main branches of the Don Delta is considered as the movement of water in an open channel (channel part of the model). Both parts of the model (marine and channel ones) are solved by finite difference methods. The predicted wind load over the water area of the Sea of Azov was set at points corresponding to the location of coastal hydrometeorological stations with subsequent interpolation for the entire water area. Two problems of forecasting water level fluctuations are considered. In the first problem, water level fluctuations are calculated depending on the morning forecast of the wind situation with a lead time of three days. In the second problem, we study the dynamics of changes in the quality of the forecast of the water level over a fixed period of time as it approaches its beginning. The quality of the forecasts is determined by comparing the predicted and observed level values. The result of the comparison shows that the presented model adequately describes the hydrodynamics in the Don Delta region depending on the wind situation over the Azov Sea.

Keywords

unsteady flow; computational experiment; surge phenomenon; channel flow; Don delta.

References

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