Hybrid Model for Activity Cycles of the Invasive Multivoltine Population

The article is devoted to modeling a specific activity scenario for mass-producing insect species. Interdisciplinary tasks for modern modeling methods are the analysis of invasive phenomena in biosystems, forecasting waves of invading aggressive alien species and developing measures to counteract their outbreaks. It is necessary to classify process types and forecast invasion development scenarios for different types of invaders. The non-triviality of the problem lies in the variability of the dynamics of similar situations due to specific factors affecting the adaptation of populations. Seasonal generations develop to the reproductive stage of ontogenesis in significantly different conditions. The author proposes a method for organizing a hybrid model of the dynamics of non-overlapping generations of different seasons for species with stage development. The computational model is formed from sequentially solved differential equations with delay, consistent with the change in the factors affecting the generations. In the developed hybrid model, the duration of life intervals of seasonal generations of polyvoltine species varies, which is typical for insect pests. It is shown that the conditions for the formation of a succession of adjacent generations become a factor in the pulsating activity of invasive insects. The proposed method for modeling the dynamics of the number of a polyvoltine population considers the critically important survival of the wintering stage of the generation, which is relevant for the analysis of insect outbreaks in boreal forests. The structure of the hybrid model is applicable to the description of transformations in the IT communications market with a fundamental improvement of one of the competing technologies.

Keywords

hybrid models; computational scenarios; delayed equations; invasion process analysis; seasonal generations; multivoltine species models.

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