Volume 15, no. 2Pages 111 - 117

Mathematical Modelling and Analysis of Activities of PJSC "Fortum"

V.G. Mokhov, G.S. Chebotareva
The article discusses a mathematical model of the production activity of PJSC
“Fortum”, which is the main supplier of electrical and thermal energy in the Southern
Urals. The model is constructed on the basis of the modified production function of Cobb -
Douglas for 2010-2020. The author’s algorithm for constructing the model is given, according
to which a computer program for modelling the operating activities of an enterprise was
written and registered in the State Register of computer programs in the Java language.
The adequacy of the constructed model was checked by the coefficient of determination,
the value of which showed its high reliability. The analysis of the constructed mathematical
model made it possible to draw the following conclusions: the strategic goal of reducing
tariffs declared in the course of the restructuring of OJSC “RAO UES of Russia” was
not fulfilled, on the contrary, their steady growth is observed; the efficiency of operating
activities does not meet modern requirements – during the entire analyzed period, there is a
diminishing economies of scale; the sustainable development strategy implemented by PJSC
“Fortum” does not have a proper economic power supply unit due to a decrease in the return
on resources involved in production; relatively high financial results of PJSC “Fortum” are
associated with an unreasonable increase in tariffs; consumers of electric and thermal energy
of the Urals and Western Siberia, in the conditions of the monopoly on the energy market,
finance the richest country in the world – the Netherlands – through payments from Fortum
Holding B.V., which directly and indirectly owns 98% of the shares of PJSC “Fortum”;
with the existing management mechanism and state control by the antimonopoly service,
PJSC “Fortum” has no incentives to replace the outdated cogeneration option based on
hydrocarbon fuels with modern, progressive green technologies. The results of the study are
recommended to the Federal Antimonopoly Service to strengthen control over the activities
of PJSC “Fortum”, reduce tariff pressure on consumers of electric and thermal energy and
unjustified enrichment of foreign subjects of the electric power industry at the expense of
Russian consumers.
Full text
model; analysis; energy market; energy supply efficiency; state control.
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